5 结论

本文根据疫情的传播特征和真实的感染数据构建了高危人群动态网络,并通过COVID–19传播模型分别模拟了COVID–19在2020年1月16日至4月25日期间在湖北地区和湖北以外的中国大陆地区的感染曲线.实验的仿真结果和已有的真实数据能够较好的拟合,反映了模型的可靠性.实验结果预测感染者的人数将在2020年2月下旬达到最大值.湖北地区感染人数将会达到人左右,湖北以外的中国大陆地区感染人数将达到人左右.随后感染人数快速下降,疫情逐渐得到控制.实验还验证了采取防护措施的时间和采取防护措施的力度对于高危人群动态网络规模的抑制作用.此外,本文还定义了疫情生长指数,经过分析可以得知各个地区的疫情规模与疫情生长指数具有正相关性.

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文章来源：《中华疾病控制杂志》 网址: http://www.zhjbkzzz.cn/qikandaodu/2021/0312/707.html

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